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Mainframe Modernization

Mainframe Modernization Services

220 billion lines of COBOL code. 92% of developers retiring by 2030. Automated refactoring at $0.10/line changed the economics. Here's your escape plan before the 2027 talent cliff.

⚠️ The 2027 Talent Apocalypse

220,000 COBOL developers remaining (average age: 58.3). 92% retire by 2030. 47% of organizations can't fill COBOL roles today. Salaries rising 25%/year. You have 24 months to act before crisis pricing kicks in.

TALENT POOL
220K → 18K
2025 → 2030 projection
CONTRACTOR RATES
$250/hr → $750/hr
2025 → 2028 estimated
AVERAGE AGE
58.3 years
Retirement: 65-67

Top Mainframe Modernization Companies

Astadia

IBM→Azure Migration

4.5
Cost$$$
Case Studies14
AWS Mainframe Modernization

Automated Refactoring (Blu Age)

4.4
Cost$$$$
Case Studies18

Modern Systems (Rocket)

Replatforming & Emulation

4.3
Cost$$$
Case Studies16

TCS

Assessment & Microservices

4.1
Cost$$$
Case Studies22

IBM Consulting

Hybrid Cloud Integration

4.0
Cost$$$$
Case Studies28

Deloitte

Strategic Innovation

4.0
Cost$$$$
Case Studies15

Accenture

Large-Scale Transformation

3.9
Cost$$$$
Case Studies24

Micro Focus (OpenText)

COBOL Emulation

3.9
Cost$$
Case Studies12

Kyndryl

Infrastructure Transformation

3.8
Cost$$$$
Case Studies20

DXC Technology

GenAI-Powered Services

3.7
Cost$$$
Case Studies11
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True Cost of Mainframe Migration Approaches

* Costs are industry averages based on market research

* Costs for 500K-1M LOC enterprise application. Excludes data migration and testing (add 30-40%).

Mainframe Modernization Market Share 2025

* Data from industry surveys and analyst reports

* Market share based on new modernization projects initiated in 2025.

Mainframe vs Cloud: The Real TCO

COMPONENT MAINFRAME (z/OS) CLOUD (AWS) SAVINGS
Compute (5,000 MIPS) $4.2M/yr $1.8M/yr 57%
Licensing (z/OS, DB2, CICS) $2.1M/yr $0 100%
Storage (50TB) $380K/yr $120K/yr 68%
Staffing (Ops + COBOL) $1.2M/yr $480K/yr 60%
TOTAL (Annual) $7.88M/yr $2.40M/yr 69.5%

* Migration investment: $2.2M-$4M. Break-even: 12-24 months. Based on typical enterprise banking application.

Mainframe Modernization Strategy

Strategic guides on assessment, COBOL migration, and hybrid cloud.

Tactical Migration Guides

Technical patterns for specific mainframe migrations.

Mainframe Modernization FAQ

Q1 What happens when our last COBOL developer retires?

47% of organizations can't fill COBOL roles today. Salaries are rising 25%/year. By 2027, 92% of remaining COBOL developers will have retired. Your options: automated refactoring ($0.10-$0.30/line), offshore contractors ($180-$250/hour), or emergency rewrite at 3x cost. Start now or pay the crisis premium.

Q2 How much does mainframe modernization really cost in 2025?

$400K-$5.2M depending on approach. Rehosting (emulator) costs $600K, 6-12 months. Automated refactoring costs $2.2M, 12-24 months. Full rearchitecting costs $4M, 24-48 months. Average dropped from $9.1M in 2024 to $7.2M in 2025 due to AI-powered automation. Break-even: 18-36 months.

Q3 Is automated COBOL-to-Java conversion actually reliable?

70-85% automation rate in 2025 (was 40% in 2020). AWS Blu Age charges $0.10/line after 120K free tier. Remaining 15-30% requires manual cleanup. Success factors: well-structured COBOL (not spaghetti code), comprehensive test suite, and 40% of budget for UAT. Failure risk if you skip data migration planning (VSAM→Postgres is the hard part).

Q4 Should we rehost, refactor, or rearchitect our mainframe?

Rehost if timeline <18 months or just need MIPS cost reduction (40-60% savings). Refactor if talent crisis is primary driver and codebase is 500K-2M lines. Rearchitect if strategic transformation and you have 24-48 months. Hybrid (78% of companies) if you need both: mainframe as system of record, cloud for new apps. Never do big-bang cutover.

Q5 What's the real cost per MIPS in 2025?

$840-$1,200/MIPS/year on IBM z/OS vs $340/vCPU-equivalent/year on AWS (60-75% savings). Hidden costs: MIPS licensing is capacity-based (you pay even if idle), $0.03-$0.12 per API call, data transfer fees. Example: 5,000 MIPS workload = $7.88M/year mainframe vs $2.40M/year cloud. But migration costs $2.2M-$4M upfront.

Q6 Can we keep our mainframe and modernize?

Yes. 78% use hybrid model: mainframe as system of record, cloud for new customer-facing apps. Strangler fig pattern: incrementally move business logic to microservices, leave data on mainframe. Benefits: risk spread over time, ROI from day one. Downside: dual-stack operational complexity, still dependent on COBOL talent for core system.

Q7 What's the biggest risk in mainframe modernization?

Underestimating testing (allocate 40% of budget for UAT, not 20%). Ignoring data migration complexity (VSAM→Postgres requires domain experts, not just DBAs). No rollback plan (you need 6+ months parallel run). Vendor lock-in to emulator or refactoring tool. And the #1 killer: stakeholder assumption that 'COBOL in Java' is cloud-native. It's not.

Q8 How long until we HAVE to migrate off mainframe?

2027 is the cliff. 92% of COBOL developers retire by 2030. Average age today: 58.3 years. Universities stopped teaching COBOL 20+ years ago. By 2026, you'll pay 3x for contractors. By 2028, your system becomes unmaintainable. Start assessment in 2025, begin migration in 2026, complete by 2028. You have 24 months to act before the rush.